March 3 - Victoria-US travel is down

Good morning !

Yes, that was another earthquake this morning. It appears to have been a 4.5 that originated just east of here at Orcas, WA. No major damage or injuries have been reported. If you didn't feel it, you may be a deep sleeper—or you may have been in one of the neighbourhoods in which the ground shakes less.

Our first story isn't about this shaking coming from just over the border, but the currently shaky relationship between us and our neighbours across the water. The second story, though, looks at how small earthquakes such as these recent ones relate to bigger ones—or Big Ones.

— Cam

Today’s approx. read time: 6 minutes

🌡️ Weather Forecast

Today: 🌦️ 10 / 5

Tomorrow: 🌧 10 / 7

Wednesday: 🌦️ 11 / 3

7-day forecast

NEWS

Victoria-US travel is down by as much as 25%

Fewer of us are heading to Washington State lately, both from the Victoria Harbour and by land.

The president of Black Ball Ferries told CHEK that passengers on the Coho to Port Angeles were about 20% below normal in its first week, while the Clipper Vacations president estimates a 25% drop in Seattle-bound Canadians. Premier David Eby has called for BC residents to avoid vacationing in the US—an approach many have already been taking, following the Trump tariffs and talk of annexation.

Cross-border traffic between BC and Washington State plunged last month amid calls for boycotts of American products, according to data released by Whatcom County and analyzed by the Fraser Valley Current.

Car traffic at the Peace Arch border crossing during the Family Day/Presidents Day long weekend was down by more than 40%. Traffic at the three other crossings in southwest BC was down by more than 20% compared to the previous year.

But our neighbours to the immediate south want Victorians to buck that trend. The weekend before last, 150+ Port Angeles residents gathered to welcome Canadians arriving on the first Coho ferry sailing of the year.

Many dressed in red to show support for their neighbours amid the countries’ standoff. The Times Colonist's Michael John Lo (formerly the 2022-2023 Capital Daily intern) joined that trip and talked to local passengers about their reasons for traveling despite the tensions. Those ranged from weddings and other long-planned trips to work commitments.

Victoria's border crossing is currently in the process of an upgrade to a new $300M+ international ferry terminal slated to open in 2028.

⚠️ Capital Bulletin

Expect sun, cloud, & rain this week.

Fallen Fire Fighters Memorial Parade is today, starting at Coho terminal at 11:25am. [Info]

Driving today? Check the current traffic situation via Google.

Want to receive the full version of yesterday's Sunday edition of Capital Daily? Become a Capital Daily Insider member today to get full access and to help bring local stories to life.

EXPLAINER

Do these small recent quakes affect the likelihood of a Big One?

BC is the most seismically active area in the country, with thousands of shakers occurring every year, including an estimated 100 or so in the Victoria area each month—we just don’t feel the vast majority of them.

Last fall, Capital Daily talked to Taimi Mulder, an earthquake seismologist with Natural Resources Canada. She said small earthquakes ever-so-slightly relieve pressure within the earth’s crust—but that it’s a myth that they significantly lower the likelihood of a major quake.

On the logarithmic earthquake scale, it would take 10 magnitude-1 quakes to have the force of a magnitude 2 earthquake.

“So you're looking at millions of small magnitude-1 earthquakes to relieve the pressure from, let's say, the ‘Big One’ offshore that we all talk about,” Mulder said in Oct. from the Pacific Geoscience Centre in Sidney.

Mulder said that statistically it’s also more likely that a smaller magnitude-5 or -6 quake will be the next to hit BC, because history has shown that those occur on a timeframe of decades while a huge quake happens in repeat intervals every 250 to 800 years.

“It could be today. It could be 500 years from now.”

As the Juan de Fuca plate subducts under the North American plate—which is below pretty much all of Canada—it crumples up the edge of the North American plate, causing quakes that so far have been up to magnitude-6 and magnitude-7 along the margins of the North American plate, which includes the Island.

The last time that happened below Canadian soil was in 1946 when a 7.3 quake—the biggest ever recorded on the Island and the largest onshore quake recorded in Canada—tore through parts of the Island from its epicentre just west of Courtney. In 2001, the 6.8 Nisqually, Wash. earthquake shook BC, Oregon, and eastern Washington from its epicentre in the state capital Olympia.

The last Big One just had its 325th anniversary; its story was pieced together over decades using physical evidence, such as the “ghost forests" shown above, and First Nations’ oral histories.

Read the full article here for an explanation of measuring earthquake magnitude vs. earthquake intensity.

SPONSORED BY BELFRY THEATRE

The Belfry's Spark Festival starts March 8

From March 8 to 23, the Belfry will present its annual SPARK Festival. Highlights include:

Crosstown, written and performed by Anand Rajaram, is a Toronto Fringe 2024 hit solo show addressing class, abortion, ambition, and faulty memory.

The Climate Play. For the past two years, Joel Bernbaum and Yvette Nolan have been working with theatres across the country on this verbatim theatre project about climate change. Free Event.

New Age Attitudes: Live in Concert. Theatre-maker and JUNO-nominated musician Amanda Sum de-digitizes her identity-drenched indie-pop album into a handmade book. You have to see it.

Check the Belfry’s website for times, dates and full details.

Seating is extremely limited. The Belfry offers pay-what-you-want tickets for all performances.

⭐️ Capital Picks

🌸 View Street is looking pinker lately as cherry/plum blossom season starts. [Doug Clement Photography]

💪🏽 A stronger, fitter, you: Personalized workout programs designed to help you build strength, gain confidence, and feel your best. Start today at BPM Fitness Centre!*

🍽 The best fine dining in town. [Tasting Victoria]

🏡 Shield Landscaping offers sturdy, stylish fences for privacy and security. Enhance your property’s look. Contact them for a free quote today.*

*Sponsored Listing

🗞️ In Other News

More room at the top as VicPD deputy joins chief in retirement
Jason Laidman is calling it a career after 32 years, including 25 at VicPD in the patrol units, gang section, regional domestic violence unit, and now as deputy chief of administration. The force has two deputy chief constables; Jamie McRae became deputy chief of operations a year ago. Chief Del Manak, will step down this Aug. after 30 years on the force. [CHEK] Last week Victoria approved VicPD's requested near-10% budget increase.

Car hits house, in latest of dozen crashes on Tanner in recent years
The resident was relieved to not be sitting near the bay window when the car crashed through on Sunday, Feb. 23. Central Saanich council intends to both lower the street speed from 50 to 40km/h and to make road design changes as part of watermain and overpass projects. [Peninsula News Review] 

New Tofino-area BC Transit system has officially launched
On March 1, BC Transit took over the bus routes originally launched a year ago by the Alberni-Clayoquot Regional District. It will add 5 new buses but keep existing drivers and its operator, contractor PWTransit Canada. This is the first-ever BC Transit region to add Indigenous languages to its signage at stops. [Ha-Shilth-Sa]

Fatal crash between Dodge Rams in Cowichan Valley
One truck was flipped and its passenger, an adult man, was pronounced dead in hospital. Neighbours say there have been many crashes at that same Trans-Canada / Boys Road intersection, including a fatal one in 2013. [CHEK] 

SPONSORED BY SWAN LAKE CHRISTMAS HILL NATURE SANCTUARY

Invertebrate Week returns to Swan Lake

Invertebrate Week is back at Swan Lake Nature Sanctuary! Come by the Nature House during March 18 - 21 to explore the wonderfully diverse world of invertebrates - the miraculous creatures that make up over 95% of earth’s animal species. There will be various living invertebrates, informational displays, and invertebrate-themed activities. 

🗓️ Things to do

🧠 Trivia at Ross Bay Pub: Test your knowledge and win prizes during this trivia night presented by Sixty Watt Trivia today at 7pm. [Free to play]

🎼 Colin James: The blues-rock legend brings his Chasing the Sun tour to The Royal Theatre tonight for a night of masterful guitar and classic hits. [Tickets]

🌬 DIY air cleaner workshop today, 1-3pm, at Lutheran Church of the Cross on Cedar Hill. [Must register]

🎸 Band Fun(d) at View Street Social: 8-10 bands, 10 minute sets, and a wheel to spin for great prizes! [Event]

🎭 Atomic Vaudeville's W.T.F: We Three Feminists. The zany troupe’s latest production imagines a trio of YouTubers embarking on a quest to become feminists and seeking an interview on the Joan Brogan Podcast. March 6 to 9.

👀 In Case You Missed It

Sunday newsletter: Canada's oldest man dies in Saanich. Salt Spring's first teacher, & other Black History Month stories. 5 meals to try at Savour Sidney. [March 1]

Note: Yesterday's lead story was missing a few words; the fourth paragraph should have read “Middleton came to Canada from England at 14 as one of the British Home Children.”

Long-empty Turner building catches fire for second time this year. [Times Colonist]

Ladysmith's new mayor is Deena Beeston. [Byelection results]

80th anniversary of death of Emily Carr was yesterday.

Snow blankets Mossome Grove near Port Renfrew. [TJ Watt photos]

Did you catch that sunset last night? What a show! Our Mark Brennae took this shot down at Dallas.