March 24 - Election has begun

Good morning !

It's official: Locals will be heading for the polls for the second time in just over 6 months (the third time for City of Victoria residents).

We'll have a lot more coverage in the coming days and weeks, but today we look at the election announcement and some of the effects it could have on the South Island.

— Cam

Today’s approx. read time: 5 minutes

🌡️ Weather Forecast

Today: 🌧 13 / 8

Tomorrow: ☁️16 / 8

Wednesday: 🌧 14 / 7

7-day forecast

NEWS

5-week federal election campaign is underway

New Liberal Party leader Mark Carney asked Governor General Mary Simon to dissolve Parliament yesterday, which triggers an election rather than what was otherwise slated to be the year's first legislative session.

Carney's popularity relative to the outgoing Justin Trudeau, and the standoff with the US, has resurrected the party's polling numbers. Last year those numbers, already flagging for years, had gone into a tailspin that augured a dominant election win by Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives.

In the winter, the NDP and Bloc Quebecois were poised to bring down the minority government at the first opportunity this spring. But NDP leader Jagmeet Singh adjusted after the trade war began, said he would at least allow parliament to return long enough to pass relief measures for workers amid the tariff battle.

The choice to end the current government has now come from the Liberal leader himself. Carney would not have been part of the House of Commons directly if the government did return. The former head banker does not have a seat, and will now run in Ottawa to secure one—right next to Poilievre's riding.

Early election could affect municipal politics 

An early federal election would have local implications beyond just who will occupy the South Island MP seats. Multiple sitting municipal politicians are running for these federal seats; their victories would trigger municipal byelections.

Key voting dates

The election itself is confirmed for April 28, but there will be advance voting April 18-21 and special ballots for voting-by-mail can be requested any time before April 22. You can find more info on the timeline here, and check your voter registration here.

More info for local voters this week 

Not all Island ridings have a full set of candidates from the major parties. The NDP, which is the incumbent in most Island seats, was the only major party to have candidates in all Island ridings at the time the election became official and the only one to have a candidate in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke.

Entering this week, the Conservatives now say they have candidates for all 7 seats as well—though some people campaigning to be a party nominee have criticized the fast-tracked process this weekend. The Liberals and Greens have until April 7 to complete their rosters; any smaller-party or independent candidates must also register by that date at 2pm.

Later this week, Capital Daily will run a full breakdown of all candidates that have been declared.

⚠️ Capital Bulletin

Tomorrow slated to be warmest day of year so far.

Rain expected for most of the week including today.

Legislature will be lit in red for World Tuberculosis Day.

Slowed Hwy 14 traffic near Sombrio due to downed hydro lines.

Driving today? Check the current traffic situation via Google.

NEWS

Island could see its federal influence decline—or expand

The outgoing 2021-elected Liberal minority government had survived mainly through the support of the NDP, which holds the bulk of Island seats. With Carney pulling support from both Conservatives and NDP in the recent weeks and months, the NDP currently appears at risk of its lowest seat count in decades. This could lead to many Islanders having MPs that are further from influence than in recent years.

However, there are also outcomes in which the Liberal party is again in position to rely on the NDP to keep power, even if the NDP loses seats. In that case, if Island seats are among those the party holds onto, those Island MPs could become proportionately more influential.

But the NDP's dominance on the Island may be more at risk this year than it has been in decades. The Liberals’ recent nationwide gains may have put them back into play in some Island ridings.

Meanwhile the Conservative Party has, based on polling, improved its chances of regaining a presence in the Island's seats. The Island would not necessarily lose presence in government if the CPC wins, since the overall path to a Conservative win may involve taking up-Island seats. The way those seats swing could even end up being among the most consequential results in the country.

Royal Roads prof David Black told CHEK that he believes one of the South Island ridings could go to the Liberals or Conservatives as the trade war with the US prompts a more national-level focus among voters. He also said that rising Liberal support could cause vote-splits with the NDP that allow the Conservatives to break through in Island ridings in which they have recently finished second.

May, now co-leader, will have smaller role in Green national campaign than in past 

The Green Party also enjoys some of its strongest support on the Island, and leader Elizabeth May had been a mainstay in her Saanich - Gulf Islands seat since securing the Greens-first-ever win there in 2011. She is running to keep that seat and remains co-leader of the party, but it was announced this month that the other co-leader Jonathan Pedneault will be “the face" of the national Green campaign.

This includes appearing in leader debates—at which, in the past, May's performances have been key for boosting the party's national profile.

May had stepped aside previously, but returned to leadership after a brief and contentious era helmed by Annamie Paul, during which the party lost vote share. Thr returning May had pushed for a co-leadership model, but it was not initially allowed in the party constitution.

Pedneault was deputy leader for two years before departing, citing “difficult, life-altering" health news he had received. He returned late last year and was approved as co-leader.

May among local politicians affected by Island doctor shortages

May, now 70, has had her own health struggles in recent years. She had a stroke in 2023, and flagged her lack of family doctor and intense Parliamentary workload as factors.

Longtime Esquimalt - Saanich - Sooke NDP MP Randall Garrison has also described lacking a family doctor for several years; he said that once he got one, the doctor recommended that he retire for his health, which he did this past winter.

Some 250,000 BC residents gained a primary care doctor last year. However, some locals told CBC last week that for those relying on Urgent & Primary Care Centres—pitched as a way for BC residents to get primary care without primary physician—long waits are still a factor.

SPONSORED BY VANCOUVER CHERRY BLOSSOM FESTIVAL

Blossoms After Dark Expands for 2025

March 28-30 6:30pm-10:00pm - Free public event

Join us for an enchanted walk through David Lam Park to experience illuminated cherry blossoms, expanded food offerings, a cherry blossom cocktail in our licensed Blossom Lounge, exciting performers and light up art installations.

⭐️ Capital Picks

💞 Sea lions nuzzling while swimming. [VanIsleWildlife]

🌺 Fireweed pin designed by South Island artist Charlene Johnny of Quw’utsun (Cowichan) Tribes is at the centre of a BCAA campaign to fund wildfire recovery.

Support local journalism by supporting Capital Daily. Become a Capital Daily Insider member today and help bring local stories to life. 

🗞️ In Other News

Saanichton gold medalist heads back to World Hockey Championship
Micah Zandee-Hart, currently the caption of the PWHL's New York Sirens, was named to the national roster for worlds after sitting out last year with injuries. The tourney runs April 9-20 in Czechia. [CHEK]

Holes opening in one road, and washouts on another, cut access to Nitinaht
Ditidaht Chief Councillor Judi Thomas said that the road problems pose a risk to the safety and livelihood of people in the small remote community, and called for the BC government to take action. [Ha-Shilth-Sa]

Car crashes in Saanich Save-on parking lot, but no injuries
Saanich Police are investigated but said that it appears that one driver hit multiple parked cars. [CHEK]

🗓️ Things to do

🇻🇪 New Venezuelan food pop-up is only open on Mondays (4-9pm) : Maria’s Venezuelan Kitchen inside Fuego Old Town Eatery.

🧱 Sidney Museum 19th Annual LEGO Exhibit. By donation, daily until March 30. [Info]

🙋‍♂️ Trivia Monday at 5th Street Bar and Grill. Test your knowledge and grab a bite. 7:30pm. [Free to play]

🎭A magical day of storytelling, games, dress-up, and more for families, presented by Kaleidoscope Theatre at Tillicum Centre. [Free]

🧠 Brain Health Summit is next week in Sidney. [Info]

👀 In Case You Missed It

Sunday news: 34 years since local boy disappeared. Victoria Royals win BC division for second time ever. [Mar. 23]

Saturday news: Victoria's sports history recognized. Municipalities must budget for new cost of 911 dispatch services. [Mar. 22]

Huge sea star in Nanoose—and who’s that camouflaged beside it?  [Video]

Striped dolphin washed up on Haida Gwaii last weekend. [Facebook photo]

“A West Coast bouquet of aggregating anemone and pink encrusting sponge” [photos by Cecile Brisebois Guillemot]

Parachute Ice Cream is opening a new location in Oak Bay soon at 2548 Windsor. 

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